Overemphasising second-order effects can conceal motivated reasoning. This is bad.
When we deal with coupled dynamical systems, first order effects are always swamped by second order effects. Look at the simple coupled systems of predator and prey, or HANDY https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
To focus on first order effects is to miss the story entirely.
I care about cash transfers making people lazy more than I care about it reducing "poverty"
When we deal with coupled dynamical systems, first order effects are always swamped by second order effects. Look at the simple coupled systems of predator and prey, or HANDY https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
To focus on first order effects is to miss the story entirely.
I care about cash transfers making people lazy more than I care about it reducing "poverty"